VAR Capital’s thoughts on this historic election
We have been busy discussing and analysing the implications of the Conservative Party’s biggest election victory since Margaret Thatcher’s win in 1987. With almost all results now declared and the Tories set to secure a majority of 78 seats, everyone’s focus is again shifting towards Brexit and any potential trade deals. The analysts and economists ...
We have been busy discussing and analysing the implications of the Conservative Party’s biggest election victory since Margaret Thatcher’s win in 1987.
With almost all results now declared and the Tories set to secure a majority of 78 seats, everyone’s focus is again shifting towards Brexit and any potential trade deals.
The analysts and economists at JP Morgan have succinctly summarised the four most likely scenarios we will be faced with:
We sympathise with these views and agree that the ability to negotiate a trade deal within the deadline poses some downside risk for the market in Q2 2020. It does however look like a deal will be reached and whether with or without a deadline extension, the possibility of no deal has now been largely mitigated.
We also believe this strong Conservative majority is likely to lead to a further uplift in risk assets (UK domestic equities, UK utilities and banks, real estate and credit) and might put pressure on export driven companies.
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VAR Capital Ltd is a limited company incorporated in England and Wales with registration number 09159540. UK registered office 41 & 43, Maddox Street, Mayfair, London W1S 2PD. VAR Capital Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Firm reference number 718558. VAR Capital is a trademark of VAR Capital Limited under the UK intellectual property regulation. Trademark number: UK00003429839